我国政策性农业保险的区域发展差异:测度及解释

近年来,在农业保险保费规模不断增长的同时,各省份农业保险发展不平衡的问题逐渐显现。根据2008—2017年的数据,利用基尼系数和广义熵指数测度了各省份农业保险发展水平的差异变化,发现区域差异呈缩小趋势。在此基础上,阐释了政策性农业保险的保费形成机制,分析了影响农业保险区域发展水平差异的相关因素,并进行了相应的实证检验。结果发现,财政补贴因素对东部和中西部省份的农业保险发展水平都有着非常显著的影响,另外,财险市场发展水平、农业相对地位对中西部省份的农业保险发展水平分别有显著的正向和负向影响。最后提出了建立反映农业保险区域发展水平的指标、优化中央和省级财政责任划分机制、加大对中西部省份的财政支持等建议。     

要素错配对中国粮食全要素生产率的影响

基于超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型对2000-2017年中国水稻、小麦和玉米等三类粮食作物TFP进行测算,并在构建要素错配指数的基础上,对单位规模土地上投入的劳动、机械、化肥和种子等4种要素错配对粮食作物实际TFP增长率的影响进行时空差异分析。研究结果显示,2000-2017年粮食作物的实际TFP增长率平均为2.24%,有效TFP增长率约为0.73%;狭义技术进步对TFP增长的拉动作用在减弱,要素配置效率的优化对TFP的提升作用在增强;劳动投入过度比较突出,是引发粮食生产要素配置不优的主要原因;从空间区域来看,东部地区要素错配程度相对较低,西部地区相对较高;中部地区粮食作物的实际TFP增长率对要素错配的敏感度要强于东部和西部地区。     

“结构困境”到“内生聚合”：特色小城镇复合生态发展的现实逻辑

特色小城镇作为新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略背景下推动城乡融合和农村城镇化的新模式,对于地方实现特色发展和典型引领,实施基层治理创新具有重要靶向功能。围绕"多源化-差异化-依赖互补-生态系统平衡"的要素耦合与"动态化-调试化-创新化-可持续发展"的行动建构整合思路,对地方生态特色化发展进行理论阐释和政策建构。基于江苏省南京市Y镇的生态发展经验,依据"政治合法-政策合理-行动合意"的路径对该镇复合生态治理的机制进行分析,提炼出特色小城镇内生聚合发展的新模式,即特色小城镇生态复合发展应基于复合生态系统治理的特征诉求,协调好经济、社会和生态的平衡关系,推动"三生"空间体系建设,促进民生保障与经济发展,创新治理体系,引导城镇更新和社会有序发展。对于现实存在的结构化困境问题,需运用复合生态治理的要求加以矫正和规范,培育多源要素耦合的基础,将其重新整合最为关键的要素及对应体系,发挥内生聚合效应,重新实现新的生态均衡。     

以现代产业体系发展推动“十四五”经济体系优化升级

现代产业体系是现代经济体系的子系统与基础支撑,通过对“十四五”时期中国建设现代化经济体系内在要求的分析,探索推动中国经济体系优化升级的基本路径。研究认为,需要以创新升级建立现代产业体系发展的动力体系,以协同融合形成现代产业体系发展的结构体系,以数字转型构建现代产业体系发展的效能体系; 在此基础上,推进政府职能改革和完善知识产权制度,创建优化制度环境; 推动数据信息交易价格机制的完善,加快培育数据要素市场; 利用新一代信息技术改造提升传统产业,统筹推进新型基础设施建设,优化升级“十四五”时期的经济体系。     

影响企业竞争力的区域软环境要素体系的构建研究

企业竞争力的关键影响要素可归为外生性和内生性两类,其中区域软环境是外生性要素的重要组成部分。影响企业竞争力的软环境是指可以随人为干预而改变的非物质产品形态的企业外部环境因素,主要包括:政府服务、社会文化、商业法制、市场环境、教育科技、金融服务等。     

The Secondary Traumatic Stress Scale (STSS)

SUMMARY

The Secondary Traumatic Stress Scale (STSS; Bride, Robinson, Yegidis, & Figley, 2004) is an easy to administer 17-itemself-report measure of secondary trauma. Bride et al. (2004) reported a measure of three domains of traumatic stress specifically associated with secondary exposure to trauma: intrusion, avoidance, and arousal. The STSS was reported to have high levels of internal consistency reliability and indicated evidence of convergent, discriminant, and factorial validity. The purpose of this paper is to examine the reliability and validity of the STSS with a national, random sample of mental health social workers. To assess the fit of the data to the three-factor structure proposed by Bride et al., a confirmatory factor analysis was performed on data from 275 social workers who indicated exposure to client trauma. The model fit the data adequately although high factor intercorrelations strongly suggest a unidimensional scale. Subsequent confirmatory factor analysis of a unidimensional scale and a second order factor analysis yielded similar results. Findings indicate the need for further scale validation. Challenges remain for measuring and distinctly differentiating between secondary trauma symptoms of arousal, avoidance, and intrusion. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Case–control genome-wide joint association study using semiparametric empirical model and approximate Bayes factor

We propose a semiparametric approach for the analysis of case–control genome-wide association study. Parametric components are used to model both the conditional distribution of the case status given the covariates and the distribution of genotype counts, whereas the distribution of the covariates are modelled nonparametrically. This yields a direct and joint modelling of the case status, covariates and genotype counts, and gives a better understanding of the disease mechanism and results in more reliable conclusions. Side information, such as the disease prevalence, can be conveniently incorporated into the model by an empirical likelihood approach and leads to more efficient estimates and a powerful test in the detection of disease-associated SNPs. Profiling is used to eliminate a nuisance nonparametric component, and the resulting profile empirical likelihood estimates are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. For the hypothesis test on disease association, we apply the approximate Bayes factor (ABF) which is computationally simple and most desirable in genome-wide association studies where hundreds of thousands to a million genetic markers are tested. We treat the approximate Bayes factor as a hybrid Bayes factor which replaces the full data by the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of interest in the full model and derive it under a general setting. The deviation from Hardy–Weinberg Equilibrium (HWE) is also taken into account and the ABF for HWE using cases is shown to provide evidence of association between a disease and a genetic marker. Simulation studies and an application are further provided to illustrate the utility of the proposed methodology.     

学科结构研究的新视角——基于学术期刊论文引文的学科结构探索

基于66种力学期刊论文的参考文献,利用引文分析法对力学期刊的引文进行统计和分析,得到力学期刊群的引文矩阵。通过余弦函数将引文矩阵转化为相似矩阵,并运用多维尺度分析法将力学期刊之间在引文上的相似性转化为平面距离,以平面图直观地展现出力学不同分支学科期刊子群在引文上的关系。在通过因子分析将66种力学期刊复杂的内部关系转换为少数几个不相关的因子的同时,考察了力学期刊群的构成和内部关系,从而探索了力学学科的结构。     

中国生猪生产布局影响因素实证研究——基于省级面板数据

合理的生猪生产布局对中国生猪产业可持续发展具有十分重要的意义，影响生猪生产区域变动的因素不能仅停留在感性认识上。基于Nerlove模型及经济学相关理论，结合各省级单位的面板数据建立动态自回归模型，对中国生猪生产布局变动的规律、特点、趋势及其效果作出系统的测度和分析。研究表明：中国生猪生产区域布局经历了五次比较大的变动，而粮食产量、原有饲养规模、消费市场的潜力、交通运输的通达性、气候条件、畜牧业与种植业的比较优势等都是影响生猪生产区域格局的因素；从影响程度看，原有饲养规模和消费市场购买力水平影响最为突出，地区粮食产量对生猪生产布局影响不显著。此结论对优化中国生猪生产布局具有指导意义。